Covid-19 briefing

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- ECONOMIC IMPACT -

Latest update: 22 November

After downturns for several months, 2021 consensus forecast for global GDP growth is currently 6.0%

The virus has now spread to 198 countries with more than 240 million confirmed cases.

5.8%

Unemployment in OECD nations stood at 5.8% in September 2021, down from 6.0% in August.

7.4%

The jobless rate in the Eurozone stood at 7.4% in September 2021 as compared to 7.5% in August.

Impact of Covid-19 on EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK

- SECTOR IMPACT: TRAVEL AND TOURISM -

Latest update: 3 November

Impact on airlines

A potential "lost decade" for passenger growth. Caveats and variations on state aid will lead to uneven recovery. Manufacturers are moving to develop longer-ranged single-aisle aircraft. IATA recently predicted even bigger debts for airlines with fewer passengers expected to fly than previously predicted.


Airline traffic continues to be volatile, and any surge in cases in a country is negatively impacting carriers. Recovery will be long, and airlines prices are not expected to recover until at least 2022.


International travel demand continues to remain low, but signs are improving as more governments reduce restrictions and introduce favourable travel rules for vaccinated travellers. Domestic demand continues to lead the recovery.

IMPACT ON INTERMEDIARIES

Intermediaries have long supported the idea or have been working towards a form of 'super app'. This app would act as one, integrated platform that would enable a customer to freely book each aspect of their trip, travel and pay their way throughout their holiday.


In order to stimulate customer demand, many intermediaries are incorporating more offerings to ensure a more seamless travel experience. International travel demand remains low meaning the outlook is still not rosy.

KEY TRAVEL AND TOURISM DEVELOPMENTS

Demand is beginning to pick up as travellers worldwide desire to get away after over a year of international travel restrictions. Cost and the rate of vaccination rollouts worldwide continue to underpin the recovery of travel for all across the supply chain.

High priced Covid-19 testing kits coupled with the uncertainty of a seamless travel experience without restrictions will continue to defer some travel.

A lack of bilateral agreements has resulted in one-sided policies and continues to cause confusion for travellers. Until two-way travel agreements are in place international travel demand will remain dampened while travellers look for experiences closer to home where restrictions have been relaxed.

Domestic tourism remains an area of intense focus and has led to significant price surges in some markets. Airlines, travel intermediaries, and tourism boards continue to shift their focus towards attracting people from home.

Even though some borders are re-opening, the slow rollout of vaccination programs in certain areas means a staycation continues to be more desirable for many.

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