Covid-19 briefing

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- ECONOMIC IMPACT -

Latest update: 15 December

According to UNCTAD, the value of global trade in goods reached an all-time quarterly high of $5.6tn in Q3 2021

The virus has now spread to 198 countries with more than 240 million confirmed cases

5.7%

Fitch Ratings forecasts the world GDP to grow by 5.7% in 2021, the fastest since 1973

5.6%

OECD forecasts the global economic growth rate at 5.6% in 2021, a downward revision of 0.1% from earlier projections

Impact of Covid-19 on EMPLOYMENT OUTLOOK

- SECTOR IMPACT: TRAVEL AND TOURISM -

Latest update: 7 January

Impact on airlines

Airline traffic continues to be volatile, and any surge in a country’s cases is negatively impacting carriers, with traveller uncertainty continuing to remain moderately high.


International travel demand could now face a period of decline due to the Omicron variant. Ed Bastian, Delta chief executive, recently stated that Omicron had hit bookings for January 2022, mainly for international travel.

IMPACT ON INTERMEDIARIES

Intermediaries have been under significant pressure during the pandemic. Many online travel agencies have been on the end of legal cases involving untimely repayments.


In some cases, relationships with suppliers such as low-cost carriers have broken down where conditions around flexibility and refunds have not been clear.


Google is also being accused of delaying the recovery of intermediaries. Online intermediaries blame Google for promoting either those that pay the most in auctions for advertisements or its own travel products, creating unfair competition in the process.

KEY TRAVEL AND TOURISM DEVELOPMENTS

After a summer that created hope for many global destinations due to vaccine rollouts and improved traveller confidence, the outlook now looks significantly bleaker with the global outbreak of the Omicron variant.

As infection rates surge across European countries, a sustained rebound from the pandemic looks less likely as many destinations reimplement restrictions upon international travel, and the Netherlands goes back into a national lockdown.

Ski tourism now looks to be a major casualty of the Omicron variant. Skiing hotspots such as France, Italy, and Switzerland will be fearing the worst, with many relying on the upcoming winter months to offset some of the losses experienced in the last two seasons.

The Covid-19 situation in Germany could be a key deciding factor on the success of the upcoming European ski season. Germany has more skiers than any other country in Europe, making this source market incredibly important for ski destinations