trends
Airline operations in 2022: key trends
Will 2022 herald a definitive move towards SAF? Will airlines stop ordering larger aircraf? Bhanu Choudhrie, founder of Alpha Aviation Group, offers his predictions for the key trends in 2022.
The last two years have perhaps been the most challenging for the aviation sector. Covid-19 shut down the world in 2020, effectively grounding most aircraft globally, and it is only now that the sector is taking its first tentative steps towards recovery.
While the sector has displayed an admirable amount of resilience, the pandemic has exacted a heavy toll from it. In 2021, passenger numbers fell away by as much as 49% while the loss of gross passenger operating revenue to airlines was over $300bn.
However, with increasing vaccination rates across the world, reduced travel restrictions, and with the fog of Covid-19 lifting gradually, this is an exciting time for the aviation sector.
While 2021 was a stop-start year in many ways for the sector, there are hopes that this year will allow the sector to stretch its wings, consolidate, and make meaningful strides towards streamlining its operations in a more sustainable and efficient way.
Some estimates have suggested that over 500,000 pilots will be required over the next couple of decades, a roaring endorsement of the aviation sector’s health. Global in-service fleet levels have recovered to 76% of pre-Covid-19 levels, and there are reports already of airlines finding it difficult to source quality talent in the cockpit.
Training
While this demand for pilots is a welcome development for the sector, it is critical that there are enough resources available to comprehensively train these pilots that the industry needs. 2022 should be the year the sector takes these training needs seriously and turns its gaze to commissioning training facilities and ramping up educational institutes to provide quality pilot training.
At Alpha Aviation Group, we are seeing increasing appetite for more localised training hubs, which will prevent less wastage in terms of travel to other facilities and have mental health benefits for pilots who can remain closer to their families during their training.
We have also had numerous requests from qualified pilots, who are returning to work after a pandemic-induced absence. Retraining these pilots, offering them enough simulator time, racking up flying hours, and easing them back into the system, quickly yet safely, will be something that pilot training institutes like ours will have a big focus on in 2022.
SAF and sustainability
Leading this charge is the sector’s move towards sustainability. The aviation industry has made a commitment to halving its net carbon dioxide emissions by 2050 and growing adoption of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) is a crucial component in this journey.
While current uptake of SAF across the sector is low, majorly due to high costs of production and a nascent distribution system, things are looking up.
Singapore Airlines and its low-cost carrier, Scoot, have decided to use SAF for all flights from Q3 this year. Virgin Atlantic has recently announced an agreement to source 2.5 million litres of SAF in the first half of 2022 at their London Heathrow base while DHL have inked a deal to purchase 33 million litres of SAF for their freight operations.
Improvements in engine technology and efficiency, will further propel this shift towards SAF and with growing uptake, the SAF can use existing distribution networks, which will further bring down costs while significantly upping the thrust towards sustainability.
Efficient aircraft
Airlines switching to narrow-body and more fuel-efficient aircraft is another trend that is expected to gain traction this year. By December 2021, data from aviation consultancy Cirium indicated that 1400 twin-aisle aircraft were in storage, an improvement from March 2020 when 3,586 aircraft had been grounded.
While there has been a slight improvement, uncertainty around when travel restrictions will be lifted and passenger numbers return to pre-pandemic levels, has seen many airlines operate aircraft with lower cost per trip and those providing increased fuel efficiency.
The sharp spike in demand is evident from the fact that Airbus’ CCO has said that delivery timelines for larger orders of single-aisle jets of the A320 vintage are now around 2024-25. Airlines are also looking at renewing their fleets, evidenced by the fact that Boeing has recorded over 650 new orders for its Max variant this year.
Cargo demand
Air cargo might be a surprise factor that shakes up the aviation sector in 2022. IATA recorded a 9.4% increase in air cargo demand in October 2021 and with passenger numbers still not moving up quickly enough, several operators have been quick to convert passenger aircraft to carry freight.
Leading aircraft manufacturers have forecasted strong growth for freighters, with both Airbus launching dedicated a freighter, the A350F, and Boeing toying with the idea of launching a bespoke freighter, the 777X.
These new-age freighters, especially the A350F, also bring strong sustainability credentials to the table, with it being 40% more fuel efficient as compared to a Boeing 747.
Main image: Founder of Alpha Aviation Group, Bhanu Choudhrie. Credit: Alpha Aviation Group.