Is the aviation industry ready to reach net-zero by 2050?

Smaller manufacturers such as Cranfield Aerospace Solutions are driving the development of net-zero aircraft. Credit: Cranfield Aerospace Solutions

The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) has called for aircraft manufacturers to move to only producing net-zero emission planes by 2035 if the aviation industry is to reach its net-zero targets. 

The release of the report has put a spotlight on aviation’s sustainability claims and highlighted the uphill battle the industry faces if it is to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, a goal approved by the International Air Transport Association (IATA). 

The high quantity of carbon emissions from the aviation industry has become one of the biggest sticking points in the global push to address climate change, with aircraft emissions from burning jet fuel highlighted as the primary source of carbon emissions. 

Aviation is still responsible for around 2% of the world’s total CO₂ emissions, according to data from IATA, and the figure could rise as air travel continues to grow, leaving some companies to work quickly on finding a more sustainable form of flying.

While much of the industry’s recent interest has focused on sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), which can provide emissions reductions of up to 80%, one of the other key technologies highlighted in the report is hydrogen fuel, which is likely to be one of the first zero-emission alternatives to conventional jet fuel for large commercial aircraft.

Scott Pendry, director of external relations for Cranfield Aerospace Technology, a company developing hydrogen-electric propulsion, says the ICCT’s study made for a “very concerning report” by showing the scale of the challenge facing aviation.

He tells Airport Industry Review: “There is no viable path to sustainable air travel that does not involve hydrogen on a large scale. Whether used in a fuel cell system or burned in a gas turbine, hydrogen will play an integral role.” 

While many of the leading manufacturers developing hydrogen aircraft or engines are only expecting to deliver the first commercial planes using the fuel in the 2030s, Cranfield is one of the few to be aiming for a much earlier launch. 

The UK-based company is currently planning on certifying its hydrogen fuel cell system by 2026 and expects to see the first aircraft using its technology to enter passenger services the following year, though initially only with small aircraft carrying 9-19 passengers.

The timeline is similar to that of ZeroAvia, perhaps the biggest manufacturer dedicated to hydrogen-electric aircraft thanks to its deals with major industry players such as American Airlines. 

The British-American manufacturer is a leader in the development of hydrogen-powered aircraft and is expecting to launch its first 10-20 passenger planes in 2025, with 100-200 seater vehicles expected soon after in 2029.

Pendry says that the launch of smaller aircraft on a commercial level should make it easier for the technology to grow.

“All the lessons learned by delivering smaller aircraft will benefit the introduction of larger hydrogen-powered aircraft," he says.

"Sub-regional aircraft will help to develop the standards and regulations required to use hydrogen as an aviation fuel, enable the certification of the aircraft/propulsion technology, and also enable the use of hydrogen within an airport, airline and maintenance organisations.” 

The idea is shared by one of the industry’s two big manufacturers, Airbus, which has been developing a network of hydrogen-ready airports through its “Hydrogen Hubs at Airports” programme. 

The company has its own zero-emissions aircraft programme known as ZEROe but has more long-term ambitions compared to its smaller development counterparts, aiming to launch its first commercial hydrogen-powered aircraft by 2035.

The company has its own zero-emissions aircraft programme known as ZEROe but has more long-term ambitions compared to its smaller development counterparts, aiming to launch its first commercial hydrogen-powered aircraft by 2035. 

The manufacturer says that it is currently evaluating various design concepts for a hydrogen aircraft and investing in “specific technology developments” before testing the fuel in flight.

“Developing the right aircraft, which will stay in the air for an average of 22-23 years, takes time," a spokesperson tells Airport Industry Review. "Airbus sees the increasing number of actors developing Hydrogen propulsion solutions as very positive for the aviation industry and is supporting the development of a wider hydrogen ecosystem for aviation.”

Airbus also confirms that it is collaborating with ZeroAvia on certification approaches for hydrogen propulsion systems to enable the company to “accelerate progress towards certification”.

“The companies also intend to work together on several critical technical areas, including liquid hydrogen fuel storage, flight and ground testing of fuel cell propulsion systems, and development of hydrogen refuelling infrastructure and operations,” the company adds.

Despite the significant progress made by smaller developers in the field of hydrogen fuel, SAF is still likely to remain at the forefront for the industry’s biggest players, with Airbus saying it maintains a “multi-faceted” approach to decarbonisation that includes enabling 100% SAF operations for its aircraft.

While SAF has come under criticism for being too early in development to make a difference at a global scale, with airlines primarily using the fuel in small 1%-5% blends for commercial flights, some companies continue to see it as a vital part of the net-zero target. 

Mukund Karanjikar, CEO of SAF manufacturer CleanJoule, is one of those figures and maintains that more investment into the fuel will be a key part of reducing emissions. 

“Nothing provides absolute zero. The important aspect is ‘net-zero’. SAF can decarbonise more than 80% of aviation emissions. IATA says we need a 65% contribution to come from SAF," he tells Airport Industry Review. “As such, we need 100% full-performance SAF soon, which is what we’ve developed and are producing at CleanJoule.” 

In fact, while hydrogen and electric propulsion appear to be a sure answer to the ICCT’s concerns about zero-emission aircraft, the organisation also says that SAF will have a role to play in the move to reduce lifetime emissions of the industry’s current fleet. 

For example, the report’s 2035 deadline for the move to only produce net-zero aircraft is based on an optimistic scenario for SAF development and the ICCT includes planes running on 100% low-carbon SAF in its definition of net-zero aircraft.

Karanjikar says the industry will need to accelerate its current efforts to develop SAF if the industry is to get to 100% use in time for the deadline set by the ICCT and calls on the bigger manufacturers to step in. 

“The primary challenge remains: we need more SAF," he says. "Getting more midstream companies involved is an important aspect. Pipelines, blenders, and store facilities are all key to the midstream.”